Bank of England base rate projections

Bank of England

Extract of the Summary from The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee 3rd November 2022…

The MPC’s projections were conditioned on the path of Bank Rate implied by financial markets in the seven working days leading up to 25 October. That path was rising to a peak of around 5¼% in 2023 Q3, before falling back. In the immediate run-up to the MPC’s November meeting, market-implied expectations for the path of Bank Rate peaked at around 4¾% in the second half of 2023, broadly in line with the peak at the time of the MPC’s September meeting. The expected path for Bank Rate in the latest MaPS, conducted between 19 and 21 October, had remained lower than the market-implied path but had shifted materially higher relative to the previous survey conducted at the start of September. The median expected path now had a peak in Bank Rate of 4½% in May 2023, 1 percentage point higher than the peak of 3½% in the previous survey. Thereafter, respondents expected a somewhat faster decline in Bank Rate than implied by the market path, with the median expectation for Bank Rate at the three-year horizon falling to 3%.

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